Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Democratic Party | 94% YES | 7% NO |
| A | — | |
| C | — | |
| E | — | |
| Republican Party | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
Minnesota's 5th congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 94% implied probability for a Democratic victory, suggesting the crowd views this seat as substantially safer for the incumbent party than the national environment might otherwise indicate. The settlement window closes at the moment all House races are conclusively called by major news organisations.
MN-05 has been a reliably Democratic district in recent cycles. In 2022, Democrat Ilhan Omar secured 66% of the vote against Republican Cicely Davis, and in 2020 Omar won with 73% against Republican Lacy Johnson. The district's Minneapolis-based composition—encompassing parts of Hennepin County with high concentrations of urban, college-educated, and minority voters—has consistently favoured Democratic candidates since Omar's first election in 2018. Historical performance at this margin suggests the 94% probability reflects genuine structural Democratic advantage rather than complacency.
Key variables for traders include candidate announcements, which typically accelerate through 2025 and early 2026. Omar's own intentions remain the primary catalyst; any retirement or primary challenge would materially shift market pricing. National midterm dynamics, particularly shifts in suburban voting patterns or turnout models, could also influence the race's competitiveness. The Federal Election Commission's filing deadlines and any significant redistricting challenges would provide additional information points before the November 2026 election.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "MN-05 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$36K in lifetime turnover and $32K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for nov 4 elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $106 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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