Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Democratic Party | 94% YES | 7% NO |
| A | — | |
| C | — | |
| E | — | |
| Republican Party | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
Maryland's 2nd congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November 2026. The seat is currently held by Democrat Dutch Ruppersberger, who has represented the district since 2003. The district encompasses parts of Baltimore County and Anne Arundel County, traditionally Democratic territory that voted for Joe Biden by approximately 26 percentage points in 2020. The 94% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the substantial structural advantage Democrats hold in this constituency, though the exact margin will depend on candidate quality, national political conditions, and turnout dynamics in two years' time.
Historical performance offers context for interpreting the current probability. MD-02 has voted Democratic in every House election since 2002, with margins typically ranging from 15 to 30 percentage points. Even in 2022, when Republicans gained seats nationally, Democrat Ruppersberger won re-election with 67% of the vote. Comparable safely Democratic districts in the Mid-Atlantic region have occasionally produced competitive races when facing strong Republican challengers or when national conditions shift significantly, though outright Republican victories remain rare.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements and primary dynamics in both parties through 2025 and 2026. National economic conditions and approval ratings heading into the midterms will influence the national political environment, though local factors typically dominate in safely partisan districts. Any significant demographic shifts or unexpected candidate recruitment by Republicans would merit reassessment of the current probability.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "MD-02 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$8K in lifetime turnover and $22K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for nov 4 elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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