Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 6, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Person N | — | |
| Person P | — | |
| Justin Pearson | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| Person C | — | |
| Person J | — | |
| Person L | — | |
| Steve Cohen | 35% YES | 66% NO |
| Person B | — | |
Tennessee's 9th congressional district will hold a Democratic primary on 6 August 2026 to select the party's nominee for the U.S. House seat in that year's midterm elections. The primary winner will face the Republican nominee in November 2026. Currently, no live price exists on Polymarket's order book for this contract, meaning the implied probability has yet to crystallise through actual trading activity. Once traders begin placing orders, the spread between bids and asks will establish the market's consensus view of each candidate's nomination chances.
Historical patterns in open-seat Democratic primaries suggest that name recognition, fundraising capacity, and endorsements from local party figures typically correlate with nomination success. TN-09 encompasses parts of Memphis and surrounding areas; comparable Democratic primary contests in Southern districts have often favoured candidates with established local networks or prior electoral experience. The absence of an incumbent creates a more fluid field than typical, potentially benefiting multiple viable candidates rather than consolidating support behind a single frontrunner.
Key catalysts for this market include formal candidate announcements, which typically accelerate in the months preceding a primary, and any shifts in local or state Democratic Party endorsements. Fundraising disclosures, filed quarterly with the Federal Election Commission, will provide concrete data on candidate viability. The settlement window closes on 6 August 2026, with a fallback resolution to "Other" if no nominee is formally announced by 3 November 2026. Traders should monitor Tennessee Democratic Party communications and local Memphis news sources for candidate emergence and campaign developments.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "TN-09 Democratic Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$7K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for new york primary contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $27 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 August 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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