Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 7 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 8 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| >9 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ≤3 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 4 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 6 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 9 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The market tracks seismic activity across the globe during a seven-day window in late April and early May 2026, measuring whether Earth experiences zero, one, two, or more earthquakes reaching magnitude 5.5 or above. The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program serves as the authoritative resolution source, with data typically published within hours of significant events. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability for any such earthquakes occurring during this specific week, suggesting traders assess the timeframe as statistically unlikely to capture major seismic events.
Historical seismic data demonstrates that magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes occur globally at a rate of approximately 15–20 per month on average, translating to roughly 3–5 per week worldwide. This baseline frequency suggests the crowd's zero probability assessment may underweight the statistical likelihood of at least one qualifying event during any given seven-day period. The distribution remains uneven geographically, with subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire, the Mediterranean, and Southeast Asia accounting for the majority of larger events.
Traders monitoring this market should track real-time USGS alerts and seismic bulletins from regional networks, particularly in high-activity zones. Recent earthquake swarms in Turkey, Japan, and the Philippines have demonstrated how tectonic stress can produce clusters of significant events. The market's resolution depends entirely on observed seismic data rather than forecasts or predictions, making it sensitive to actual geological activity rather than anticipatory factors.
The 1997 Manyi earthquake occurred on November 8 at 10:02 UTC. The epicenter was in Nagqu Prefecture in northern Tibet, China. The focal mechanism indicates a left-lateral strike-slip movement. This earthquake had a surface rupture of 17 km (11 mi) long with up to 7 m (23 ft) of left-lateral slip along the Manyi fault, a westward continuation of the Kunlun f
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "How many 5.5 or above earthquakes April 27 - May 3?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$85K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for natural disasters contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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