Trade: Pro Football: 2026 MVP Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 NFL Most Valuable Player award for the 2026-27 NFL season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NFL rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026-27 NFL season is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $160K
- Total Volume
- $4K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $208
Market outcomes
| Joe Burrow | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| Drake Maye | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| Justin Herbert | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Christian McCaffrey | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Derrick Henry | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| Sam Darnold | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| De'Von Achane | 12% YES | 89% NO |
Market context
The NFL's Most Valuable Player award for the 2026–27 season will be determined by voting amongst media members and fans following the regular season and playoffs. The award typically goes to a quarterback or elite offensive skill-position player, though defensive players have occasionally won in recent decades. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 10% probability for this specific outcome, suggesting the market is pricing in meaningful uncertainty around which individual player will receive the award across a league-wide field of candidates.
Historically, MVP voting concentrates heavily on players from winning teams with exceptional statistical performances. Since 2010, quarterbacks have claimed roughly 70% of MVP awards, with the remaining votes split amongst running backs, wide receivers, and rare defensive selections. The 2024 MVP race between Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen illustrated how closely competitive seasons can produce tight voting margins, whilst dominant individual campaigns like Patrick Mahomes' 2018 season generated near-consensus support. These precedents suggest the 10% probability reflects a moderately competitive expected field rather than a clear frontrunner.
Key catalysts will emerge throughout the 2026 regular season as statistical leaders and team success rates become apparent by late autumn. Injury developments affecting star players, playoff seeding implications, and late-season performance surges will shape narrative momentum heading into voting. The NFL typically announces MVP results in early February, providing the settlement window through mid-February 2027. Traders should monitor preseason projections and early-season performance data from September 2026 onwards, as these will substantially shift implied probabilities across the order book as the season progresses.
Wikipedia Context
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Pro Football Hall of FameThe Pro Football Hall of Fame is the hall of fame for professional American football, located in Canton, Ohio. Opened on September 7, 1963, the Hall of Fame enshrines exceptional figures in the sport of professional football, including players, coaches, officials, franchise owners, and front-office personnel, almost all of whom made their primary contributio
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Pro Football Hall of Fame GameThe Pro Football Hall of Fame Game is an annual National Football League (NFL) preseason exhibition game in Canton, Ohio, held the weekend of the Pro Football Hall of Fame's induction ceremonies. The game is played at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium, part of the Hall of Fame Village and located adjacent to the Hall of Fame building. The first game was played
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Pro Football Reference
Pro Football Reference (PFR) is an online statistics database for professional American football maintained by Sports Reference. The site provides career statistics for players, teams, and games, as well as records and NFL draft history. PFR was established independently by Doug Drinen in 2000, and became part of Sports Reference in 2007. Sports Reference al
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Pro Football Writers of AmericaThe Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA), sometimes known as Pro Football Writers Association, is an organization that purports to be "[the] official voice of pro football writers, promoting and fighting for access to NFL personnel to best serve the public." Goals of the organization include improving access to practices and locker rooms, developing workin
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Pro Football: 2026 MVP Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$4K in lifetime turnover and $160K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for mvp contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 February 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Pro Football: 2026 MVP Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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