Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Drake is expected to release his new album 'ICEMAN' in 2026. This market will resolve based on the length of 'ICEMAN'. The album length will be measured from the start of the first song to the end of the final song on the album once it is officially released in full. Officially released means that 'ICEMAN' is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the 'ICEMAN' project will count, regardless of potential name changes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <30 minutes | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 30 - 40 minutes | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| 40 - 50 minutes | 30% YES | 71% NO |
| 50 - 60 minutes | 36% YES | 65% NO |
| 60 - 70 minutes | 35% YES | 65% NO |
| 70 - 80 minutes | 34% YES | 67% NO |
| 80 - 90 minutes | 42% YES | 59% NO |
| 90+ minutes | 32% YES | 68% NO |
Drake's forthcoming album ICEMAN is anticipated for release in 2026, with this market measuring the total runtime from the opening track through to the final song on the officially released version. The settlement window closes in May 2026, establishing a firm deadline for resolution. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 1% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting traders assess a very low likelihood of the album meeting whatever duration threshold defines the affirmative resolution bracket.
Drake's discography provides relevant precedent for runtime expectations. His recent albums have ranged considerably: Scorpion (2018) ran 90 minutes across 25 tracks, whilst Certified Lover Boy (2021) stretched to 86 minutes with 21 songs. Earlier projects like Views (2016) reached 81 minutes. These variations reflect Drake's tendency towards extended projects rather than concise releases, though he has occasionally released shorter compilations and collaborative works. The 1% probability currently priced suggests the market anticipates ICEMAN will fall outside a specific, likely shorter duration band.
Key catalysts for traders include any official Drake announcement regarding ICEMAN's tracklist, which would provide concrete information about song count and estimated length. Industry reporting from outlets like Pitchfork or Complex often precedes official releases with leaked details. The timing of any pre-release singles or promotional materials in early 2026 could signal the project's scope. Additionally, any statements from Drake's label OVO Sound or collaborating producers may hint at the album's intended scale and runtime characteristics ahead of the May deadline.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "How long will ICEMAN be?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$591 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for music contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $277 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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