Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 global Netflix movie. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Apex | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Roommates | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Bugonia | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Thrash | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Den of Thieves | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Movie A | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Movie C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Movie E | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Netflix publishes its global Top 10 movies ranking weekly, with the next update scheduled for Tuesday, 5 May 2026 at 3:00 PM ET. This market settles on which film ranks second in that week's English-language global list, based on total views. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial uncertainty about which title will occupy that specific position, with no single film commanding enough conviction among traders to establish a meaningful bid-ask spread at higher probabilities.
Historical Netflix Top 10 data shows the #2 position typically rotates between established releases and new entries, with few films holding the slot for consecutive weeks. The composition of Netflix's top rankings depends heavily on release timing, regional performance variations, and the competitive landscape of simultaneous releases. Comparable markets tracking Netflix rankings have shown that predicting exact positions—rather than broader tier placement—carries higher volatility, as small viewership differentials can shift rankings substantially. The 0% reading suggests traders are either awaiting clearer information about the week's releases or treating the #2 slot as genuinely competitive with no frontrunner.
Key catalysts include Netflix's release schedule announcements and any major film launches in late April 2026 that could dominate the following week's viewership. Traders should monitor Netflix's own promotional activity and third-party tracking services for early signals about which titles are generating momentum. The settlement window closes 5 May at 3:00 PM ET, with a fallback resolution to "Other" if the official update does not publish by 8 May at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What will be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$12K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for movies contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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