Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to how much "The Mandalorian and Grogu" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 4-day opening weekend (May 22 - May 25) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 92-102m | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| 112-122m | 18% YES | 82% NO |
| <92m | 32% YES | 68% NO |
| 102-112m | 17% YES | 84% NO |
| >122m | 5% YES | 96% NO |
The Mandalorian and Grogu, a theatrical film based on the Star Wars streaming series, is scheduled for release on 23 May 2026, with its opening weekend spanning the four-day Memorial Day period (22–25 May). The market currently prices a 20% probability that domestic opening weekend gross will exceed $120 million, reflecting substantial scepticism about the film's box office potential. This probability is formed across Polymarket's order book, where traders are balancing competing signals about franchise appeal and theatrical appetite.
Star Wars theatrical releases have shown volatile opening weekend performance in recent years. The sequel trilogy films (2015–2019) opened between $135–248 million domestically, whilst Rogue One (2016) opened at $155 million. However, Solo (2018) underperformed significantly with $84 million, suggesting franchise fatigue and audience fragmentation. A spin-off centred on a streaming show's characters occupies uncertain territory—it lacks the trilogy's cultural momentum but benefits from established fan attachment to Din Djarin and Grogu. Memorial Day weekend historically supports family-oriented tentpoles, which favours the film's positioning.
Key variables include pre-release tracking data, which studios typically release in the final two weeks before opening, and competitive positioning against other May releases. The film's marketing spend and critical reception upon embargo lift (typically one week before release) will shape final weekend projections. Traders should monitor industry publications including Deadline and Variety for tracking updates and any scheduling changes affecting the four-day window.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.the-numbers.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading ""The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$35 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for movies contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $35 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.the-numbers.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 26 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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