Trade: MLB: Home Runs Leader
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $61K
- Total Volume
- $3K
- 24h Volume
- $590
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| Aaron Judge | 42% YES | 59% NO |
| Kyle Schwarber | 14% YES | 87% NO |
| Eugenio Suarez | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Junior Caminero | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Nick Kurtz | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| George Springer | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Mike Trout | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Matt Olson | 8% YES | 93% NO |
Market context
The 2026 MLB regular season will determine which player finishes with the most home runs across all 162 games. The settlement window closes on 28 September 2026, capturing the full regular season through its conclusion. Polymarket's order book currently prices this outcome at 42% implied probability, reflecting uncertainty around which individual will lead the league in this fundamental power-hitting metric.
Historical home run races provide context for reading current market pricing. Since 2015, single-season home run leaders have ranged from 52 to 73 home runs, with the distribution heavily influenced by which elite sluggers remain healthy and productive throughout a full campaign. Aaron Judge's 62-home run season in 2022 reset modern expectations, yet subsequent leaders (Kyle Schwarber in 2024 with 38, and others in intervening years) demonstrate significant variance. The 42% probability suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether a consensus favourite exists or whether the market is pricing a distributed outcome across multiple contenders.
Traders should monitor roster construction and injury reports as spring training approaches in early 2026. Changes to ballpark dimensions, particularly at hitter-friendly venues, and shifts in offensive league trends will influence home run totals. Recent seasons have shown volatility in power output tied to equipment specifications and rule changes. The settlement mechanism's tiebreaker provisions—slugging percentage, then batting average—mean that a trader's edge may depend on identifying which high-volume home run hitter also maintains superior overall offensive efficiency.
Wikipedia Context
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MLB Home Run Derby XMLB Home Run Derby X is a global baseball tour operated by Major League Baseball (MLB). Its first edition was in 2022. It is based on the Home Run Derby that is usually contested the day before the MLB All-Star Game.
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List of Major League Baseball home run records
This is a list of some of the records relating to home runs hit in baseball games played in the Major Leagues. Some Major League records are sufficiently notable to have their own page, for example the single-season home run record, the progression of the lifetime home run record, and the members of the 500 home run club. A few other records are kept on sep
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MLB Network Radio
MLB Network Radio is an American sports talk radio station on Sirius XM Radio that features Major League Baseball related talk shows, as well as archives and live reports about live game action, along with other baseball leagues and teams worldwide.
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MLB Power ProsMLB Power Pros, also known in Japan as Jikkyou Powerful Major League 2 (実況パワフルメジャーリーグ2), is a baseball video game developed by Baseball Contents Production and published by 2K in North America and Konami in Japan for the Wii and PlayStation 2 video game consoles. It is part of the traditionally Japan-only Power Pros series of video games, and is the first ga
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "MLB: Home Runs Leader" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$3K in lifetime turnover and $61K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for mlb contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $590 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 28 September 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "MLB: Home Runs Leader"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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