Trade: Georgia Senate Election Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Georgia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $26K
- Total Volume
- $24K
- 24h Volume
- $255
- Open Interest
- $8K
Market outcomes
| Republican | 16% YES | 85% NO |
| Person D | — | |
| Person H | — | |
| Person B | — | |
| Person F | — | |
| Person J | — | |
| Person A | — | |
| Person E | — | |
Market context
Georgia will hold a U.S. Senate election in November 2026 as part of the midterm cycle. The race will determine whether Democrats or Republicans claim the seat, with any runoff election included in the settlement criteria. The current order book on Polymarket prices Democratic victory at 15%, implying Republican control is heavily favoured by traders at present.
Georgia's Senate races have become increasingly competitive over the past decade. The state voted Democratic in the 2020 presidential election and elected Democrat Jon Ossoff to the Senate in 2021, though Republicans hold the other seat. The 2022 midterms saw Democrat Raphael Warnock retain his seat in a runoff, suggesting structural support for Democratic candidates in statewide contests despite the state's historical Republican leanings. However, midterm dynamics typically differ from presidential-year turnout patterns, and the party holding the White House often faces headwinds in such elections.
Key variables shaping the race include candidate quality and recruitment timelines—major announcements from either party's nominee typically arrive in 2025 and early 2026. Economic conditions and national political momentum heading into the midterms will influence voter sentiment. Georgia's demographic composition and voter registration trends, particularly among suburban and younger voters, remain structural factors worth monitoring. The state's runoff rules, which require a majority to avoid a second round, create additional uncertainty around final outcomes. Traders should track early polling data and fundraising figures once candidates formally enter the race.
Wikipedia Context
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2010 Georgia state electionsA general election was held in the U.S. state of Georgia on November 2, 2010. All of Georgia's executive officers were up for election as well as a United States Senate seat, all of Georgia's thirteen seats in the United States House of Representatives and all seats in both houses of the Georgia General Assembly. Primary elections were held on July 20, 2010.
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2008 Georgia state elections
Georgia's state elections were held on November 4, 2008. The primary elections were held on February 5, also known as Super Tuesday.
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Georgia State Election Board
The Georgia State Election Board is an agency of the state government of Georgia responsible for making and enforcing rules that protect the fairness, legality, and orderly conduct of Georgia's election process.
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2006 Georgia state elections
In the 2006 Georgia elections, Incumbent Governor Sonny Perdue, the first Republican Governor of Georgia since reconstruction, was re-elected over then-Lieutenant Governor Mark Taylor (D).
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Georgia Senate Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$24K in lifetime turnover and $26K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for midterms contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $255 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Georgia Senate Election Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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