Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Taqaddom Party | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Lana – Social Democratic Party (Lana) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Watani Alliance (Watani) | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Party D | — | |
| Party J | — | |
| Party O | — | |
| Party Q | — | |
Lebanon is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections in May 2026, with voters selecting members of the 128-seat National Assembly. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial uncertainty about which political party will secure the plurality of seats. This pricing emerges from the absence of committed liquidity backing any single outcome, a common pattern for elections more than eighteen months away where polling data remains sparse and political coalitions remain fluid.
Lebanese parliamentary contests have historically been shaped by confessional power-sharing arrangements and shifting alliances among Sunni, Shia, Christian and Druze factions. The 2018 elections saw Hezbollah and allied parties gain ground despite international sanctions, whilst Sunni-led blocs fragmented. Current conditions differ markedly: economic collapse, the 2023 ceasefire with Israel, and ongoing state weakness create unpredictable variables. Comparable emerging-market elections at similar temporal distance typically show crowd probabilities clustering around 15–25% for leading contenders, suggesting the current 0% reflects genuine absence of consensus rather than confidence in any specific outcome.
Traders should monitor announcements regarding candidate registration deadlines, which typically occur several months before polling day, and any shifts in Hezbollah's political positioning following the ceasefire. The Lebanese government's fiscal stability and international engagement levels will influence voter behaviour. Parliamentary seat projections from Lebanese polling firms, when released, will provide concrete data points. The February 2026 resolution deadline creates a hard constraint: if final results remain disputed beyond that date, the market resolves to "Other" regardless of subsequent clarity.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$522K in lifetime turnover and $170K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for middle east contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $440 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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