Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2026 Ottawa mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Alex Lawson | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Other | — | |
| Person D | — | |
| Person H | — | |
| Person L | — | |
| Person P | — | |
| Person T | — | |
| Person X | — | |
Ottawa will hold its municipal election on 26 October 2026 to determine the next mayor. The current Polymarket order book implies a 2% probability for this specific outcome, reflecting substantial uncertainty about which candidate will prevail in what is shaping as a competitive race. The settlement window closes at midnight ET on the election date, with a backstop resolution deadline of 30 June 2027 should results remain unclear.
Canadian municipal elections typically feature lower voter turnout and less predictable outcomes than federal or provincial contests, particularly in larger cities where fragmented candidate fields can produce surprise results. Ottawa's 2022 mayoral election saw Mark Sutcliffe win with approximately 45% of the vote in a three-way race, establishing a baseline for understanding how vote splitting affects outcomes. Historical precedent suggests that early frontrunners can face significant challenges from late-campaign momentum shifts or candidate consolidation around alternatives.
Key catalysts for traders include formal candidate registrations (typically opening in summer 2026), major campaign announcements, and any significant shifts in local political dynamics affecting incumbent performance or challenger viability. The City of Ottawa's official election website will publish candidate lists and campaign finance disclosures as the election approaches. Traders should monitor local Ottawa media outlets and municipal government communications for developments affecting candidate positioning, as these often precede broader market repricing. The extended resolution window to June 2027 provides additional time for official results confirmation, reducing the risk of premature settlement disputes.
The following is a list of mayors of Ottawa. Until 1854, Ottawa was known as Bytown. Over the course of Ottawa's history, the borders of the municipality have greatly expanded through annexations. This most recently occurred in 2001 when a number of neighbouring communities were amalgamated with Ottawa.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$12K in lifetime turnover and $33K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for mayoral elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $812 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 26 October 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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