Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Zohran Mamdani has proposed creating city owned grocery stores to combat rising prices (see: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/12/nyregion/grocery-stores-city-owned.html). This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur: 1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election. 2. The City of New York implements a policy under which at least one grocery store that is city-owned and operated is actively open to the public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The policy will be considered to have been implemented if at least one such store is open for regular grocery retail sales to the public by the resolution date.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? | 1% YES | 99% NO |
Zohran Mamdani, a New York State assemblymember, has proposed establishing city-owned and operated grocery stores as a policy response to elevated food prices in New York City. This market requires two sequential conditions: Mamdani must first win the 2025 mayoral election, then the city must open and operate at least one such store by 30 June 2026. The current order book implies a 2% probability, reflecting the compounded unlikelihood of both events occurring within the timeframe.
The 2% implied probability sits at the intersection of two distinct political hurdles. Mamdani would need to overcome an incumbent mayor (Eric Adams) or other frontrunners in a crowded Democratic primary, then execute a novel municipal grocery operation within months of taking office. Historical precedent for city-owned retail is sparse in modern American governance; whilst some municipalities operate farmers' markets or food distribution programmes, direct grocery retail remains uncommon. The operational and regulatory complexity of launching a functioning supermarket—securing real estate, staffing, supply chains, licensing—typically requires 12–24 months minimum from conception to opening.
The primary catalyst remains the 2025 mayoral primary, scheduled for June 2025, with the general election in November. Mamdani's current polling position and campaign momentum will clarify his viability before summer. Should he advance to the general election, traders should monitor his policy commitments and any pilot programme announcements. The compressed timeline between a potential January 2026 inauguration and the 30 June 2026 deadline leaves minimal room for delays in site acquisition, permitting, or construction—a constraint that significantly anchors the low probability reflected in current market pricing.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$249K in lifetime turnover and $17K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for mamdani contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $427 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 1%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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