Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The Rio Grande do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Marcelo Maranata | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Luciano Zucco | 36% YES | 65% NO |
| Juliana Brizola | 37% YES | 64% NO |
| Gabriel Souza | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Luis Carlos Heinze | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Candidate B | — | |
| Candidate D | — | |
| Candidate F | — | |
Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul will hold its gubernatorial election on 4 October 2026, with a potential runoff on 25 October if no candidate secures an outright majority in the first round. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 2% implied probability for the YES position, indicating the market perceives substantial uncertainty or assigns low likelihood to a specific outcome materialising as written. Settlement hinges on the official election result, with the resolution window extending to 30 June 2027 to accommodate any delays in final certification.
Rio Grande do Sul's electoral history shows competitive, multi-candidate races where frontrunners often face strong challenges from regional figures and parties with local roots. The state has experienced significant political volatility in recent cycles, with incumbent governors facing headwinds from economic conditions and shifting voter coalitions. Comparable Brazilian gubernatorial races in 2022 demonstrated that polling can shift materially in the months preceding elections, particularly when candidates consolidate support or face unexpected scandals.
Traders should monitor candidate registration deadlines, campaign finance disclosures, and polling releases as the election approaches. Recent developments in Rio Grande do Sul's state economy—particularly agricultural performance and fiscal pressures—will likely influence voter sentiment. The narrow 2% probability on the order book suggests either high confidence in a particular outcome or genuine difficulty in assessing the race's trajectory given the distance to the election date. Any major political realignments at the federal level could also reshape state-level dynamics before October 2026.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$58K in lifetime turnover and $51K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for main election contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $6K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 October 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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