Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the Eurozone over the 12-month period ending December 2026 as reported by Eurostat. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Eurostat report. The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1.0–1.2% | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| 1.6–1.8% | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 2.2–2.4% | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| 3.1%+ | 58% YES | 42% NO |
| <1.0% | 23% YES | 77% NO |
| 1.3–1.5% | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1.9–2.1% | 16% YES | 84% NO |
| 2.5–2.7% | 6% YES | 94% NO |
The Eurozone's consumer price inflation rate for the 12-month period ending December 2026 will be determined by Eurostat's Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) report, due 19 January 2027. This market settles on that single monthly release, which measures the year-on-year percentage change in prices paid by households across the currency union's 20 member states. The current order book on Polymarket implies just a 4% probability that inflation will exceed the threshold specified in the market's resolution criteria—a notably tight consensus among traders pricing this outcome.
Historical context shows Eurozone inflation has been volatile over recent years. Following the 2021–2022 energy shock that pushed headline inflation above 10%, the European Central Bank's rate hiking cycle brought readings down substantially through 2023 and 2024. By late 2024, inflation had moderated to around 2–2.5%, though core inflation—excluding volatile energy and food components—remained stickier. The low implied probability reflects trader expectations that 2026 will see inflation remain within or near the ECB's 2% target range, consistent with the disinflationary trajectory observed since mid-2023.
Key catalysts include the ECB's monetary policy decisions throughout 2025 and early 2026, which will shape price pressures heading into year-end. Energy prices, wage growth dynamics, and any external supply shocks will influence the final reading. Traders should monitor Eurostat's monthly HICP releases throughout 2026 for trend confirmation, alongside ECB communications and any fiscal policy shifts across major member states that could affect demand-side inflation drivers.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$13K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for macro indicators contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $20 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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