Trade: Canada Annual Inflation 2026
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Statistics Canada report. The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $2K
- Total Volume
- $16K
- 24h Volume
- $44
- Open Interest
- $755
Market outcomes
| 1.5–1.9% | 30% YES | 70% NO |
| <1.0% | 21% YES | 79% NO |
| 1.0–1.4% | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| 2.0–2.4% | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| 2.5–2.9% | 52% YES | 48% NO |
| 4.0%+ | 30% YES | 70% NO |
| 3.0-3.4% | 34% YES | 66% NO |
| 3.5-3.9% | 18% YES | 82% NO |
Market context
The market prices the probability that Canada's year-on-year consumer price inflation through December 2026 will exceed a specific threshold, with the current order book implying a 33% likelihood. Statistics Canada will release the December 2026 CPI figure on 18 January 2027, settling the market against the official 12-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index before seasonal adjustment. This metric captures the cumulative effect of price movements across goods and services throughout 2026, reported monthly but resolved on the final reading of that calendar year.
Canada's inflation trajectory has moderated substantially from the 2022 peak of 8.1% but remained volatile through 2024–2025. The Bank of Canada's policy rate cuts, which began in June 2024, will have full-year effects by 2026, though transmission lags mean the relationship between current monetary conditions and year-end inflation is indirect. Historical precedent suggests that when central banks are in easing cycles following disinflation, year-on-year readings tend to stabilise in the 2–3% range, though energy price shocks and exchange rate movements introduce material uncertainty for Canada specifically.
Traders should monitor Statistics Canada's monthly CPI releases throughout 2026, particularly readings in Q4 that will directly inform the December settlement figure. Energy prices remain a critical variable given Canada's commodity exposure; any significant crude oil movements in late 2026 could shift the year-on-year calculation materially. The Bank of Canada's policy communications and any revisions to core inflation measures will also signal the underlying momentum traders should expect in the final quarter.
Wikipedia Context
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Seal huntingSeals are hunted in nine countries: Canada, Denmark, Russia, the United States, Namibia, Estonia, Norway, Finland and Sweden. Most of the world's seal hunting takes place in Canada and Greenland.
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Canadian Nuclear Association
The Canadian Nuclear Association (CNA), founded in 1960, is the trade association for the nuclear industry in Canada. The CNA undertakes several advocacy tasks related to nuclear technology in Canada, such as participating in relevant regulatory and environmental affairs, public, government, and media relations, education, and also provides several business
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Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission
The Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission is the federal regulator of nuclear power and materials in Canada.
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Canadian Nuclear SocietyThe Canadian Nuclear Society (CNS) is a not-for-profit organization representing individuals contributing to, or otherwise supporting, nuclear science and engineering in Canada. Since 2017, the group has invested in the development of small modular reactor technology.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Canada Annual Inflation 2026" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$16K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for macro indicators contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $44 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 18 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Canada Annual Inflation 2026"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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