Trade: Deere Q2 Production & Precision Agriculture operating margin?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to Deere's announced Production & Precision Agriculture operating margin for the second fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $1K
- Total Volume
- $200
- 24h Volume
- $200
- Open Interest
- $205
Market outcomes
| 16%–18% | 54% YES | 47% NO |
| 20%–22% | 36% YES | 64% NO |
| <16% | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| 18%–20% | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| 22%+ | 38% YES | 62% NO |
Market context
Deere & Company will report its Production & Precision Agriculture operating margin for fiscal Q2 2026 in May, a key profitability metric for the agricultural equipment division that combines farm machinery manufacturing with digital farming solutions. The current order book on Polymarket reflects 56% implied probability for a YES resolution, suggesting traders are pricing in moderate confidence that the margin will meet or exceed the threshold specified in settlement criteria. This probability formation depends on real-time liquidity and positioning across the market's order book.
Historical context matters here: Deere's Production & Precision Agriculture margins have fluctuated considerably with commodity cycles, input costs, and adoption rates for precision tools. In recent years, this segment has benefited from strong farmer cash flows and premium pricing on connected equipment, though supply chain pressures and labour costs have compressed margins periodically. Traders should reference Deere's Q1 2026 results (reported February 2026) as the most recent comparable datapoint for margin trajectory and management guidance.
Key catalysts include Deere's official Q2 earnings release scheduled for late May 2026, which will contain the precise operating margin figure. Traders should monitor interim developments: commodity price movements affecting farmer demand, any supply chain disruptions, currency fluctuations impacting export competitiveness, and competitive pressures from AGCO or CNH Industrial. Recent agricultural equipment sector reports and Deere's own forward guidance in Q1 earnings calls will signal margin direction before the settlement window closes on 21 May 2026.
Wikipedia Context
-
Alan DeereAir Commodore Alan Christopher Deere, was a New Zealand fighter ace with the Royal Air Force (RAF) during the Second World War. He was also known for several near-death experiences over the course of the war. This led to his published autobiography being titled Nine Lives.
-
John Deere (inventor)John Deere was an American blacksmith, businessman, inventor and politician. He founded Deere & Company, one of the largest and leading agricultural and construction-equipment manufacturers in the world. Born in Rutland, Vermont, Deere moved to Illinois and invented the first commercially successful steel plow in 1837.
-
Jack Deere
Jack Deere is an American charismatic pastor and theologian.
-
Carmen Diana Deere
Carmen Diana Deere is an American feminist economist who is an expert on land policy and agrarian reform, rural social movements, and gender in Latin American development. Deere is Professor Emeritus of Latin American studies and Food Resources Economics at the University of Florida and Professor Emeritus of FLACSO-Ecuador. She was honored with the Silvert A
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Deere Q2 Production & Precision Agriculture operating margin?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$200 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for kpis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $200 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Deere Q2 Production & Precision Agriculture operating margin?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: