Trade: Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Donald Trump and the United States sent invitations to countries around the world, inviting them to join the US-led Board of Peace which will oversee conflict resolution in Gaza and elsewhere (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-names-rubio-blair-kushner-gaza-board-under-trumps-plan-2026-01-17/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any new country joins the Board of Peace between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $2K
- Total Volume
- $14K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $3K
Market outcomes
| Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? | 30% YES | 70% NO |
Market context
The Trump administration established the Board of Peace in January 2026 as a multilateral mechanism intended to oversee conflict resolution in Gaza and other disputes. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, former Prime Minister Tony Blair, and Jared Kushner were named to lead the initiative, with formal invitations extended to countries worldwide. The board's mandate centres on implementing ceasefire agreements and facilitating diplomatic solutions, though its operational structure and enforcement mechanisms remain under development. The current 29% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects meaningful uncertainty about whether any nation will formally accede by the June 2026 deadline.
Historical precedent suggests mixed outcomes for newly established multilateral bodies. The Abraham Accords framework saw rapid initial participation from UAE and Bahrain in 2020, though subsequent expansion proved slower. Conversely, initiatives requiring formal institutional membership—such as the International Criminal Court—often face protracted negotiations before countries commit. Regional actors face competing pressures: alignment with US policy versus domestic political costs and existing treaty obligations. Arab states remain divided on Gaza-related mechanisms, whilst European nations typically demand clearer governance structures before joining new bodies.
Key catalysts include formal board meetings, published governance frameworks, and statements from potential member states. Reuters reported in mid-January that invitations had been distributed, but no public acceptances have materialised. Traders should monitor announcements from Gulf states, Egypt, and Jordan—nations with direct Gaza interests and historical US alignment—as well as any European participation signals. The board's credibility will likely hinge on early operational successes in ceasefire implementation, which could either accelerate or impede membership decisions through June.
Wikipedia Context
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A Country Doctor (short story)"A Country Doctor" is a short story written in 1917 by Franz Kafka. It "first appeared in Kurt Wolff's 1918 anthology Die Neue Dichtung and then in early 1920 as the title piece in Kafka's second collection of stories". In the story, a country doctor makes an emergency visit to a sick patient on a winter night. The doctor faces absurd, surreal predicaments
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 30% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $333 if YES resolves true — a 233% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$14K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for israel contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 30%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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