Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that seeks to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel-Iran conflict by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Legislation will qualify as seeking to limit U.S. armed forces military action in the recent US/Israel–Iran conflict if it explicitly seeks to restrict, terminate, or require congressional approval for U.S. armed forces’ hostilities, strikes, deployments, or other military operations against Iran or its proxy forces.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31? | 4% YES | 96% NO |
The question hinges on whether Congress will pass legislation constraining U.S. military operations against Iran by the end of May 2026. This would require identical language passing both chambers—a notably high bar given the procedural complexity of reconciling House and Senate versions. The 4% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the historical rarity of such resolutions reaching presidential signature, particularly during periods of active regional tension.
War powers resolutions have succeeded only sporadically in recent decades. The 2019 Yemen resolution passed both chambers but faced a presidential veto; the 2023 Taiwan Policy Act stalled; and attempts to constrain operations in Iraq and Syria have largely failed to achieve bicameral passage. The current low probability incorporates this track record—Congress has consistently struggled to muster supermajority support for binding constraints on executive military authority, especially when framed as limiting response to Iranian actions.
Traders should monitor several catalysts through May 2026. Congressional statements following any escalation in US-Iran hostilities could shift momentum toward a resolution, whilst diplomatic breakthroughs reducing regional tension would likely suppress passage odds. Committee hearings on war powers authorities and any formal House or Senate bill introductions would provide concrete signals. Recent reporting from outlets including Reuters and The Hill has tracked bipartisan concern about executive overreach, though this sentiment has not yet crystallised into legislative vehicles with genuine passage prospects. The timing window—roughly 18 months—allows for political conditions to shift materially, but the structural obstacles to bicameral agreement remain substantial.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for iran contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $15 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 4%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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