Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The ruling coalition of the Netherlands collapsed on June 3, 2025. New parliamentary elections are expected to be scheduled soon. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by GroenLinks–PvdA in the House of Representatives as a result of this election. If voting in the Netherlands election for the House does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by GroenLinks–PvdA. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ≤22 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 23–25 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 26–28 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ≥29 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The Dutch ruling coalition dissolved on 3 June 2025 following disagreements over immigration policy, triggering a parliamentary election that must occur by 31 July 2026. The GroenLinks–PvdA alliance, a left-wing coalition formed between the Green Party and the Labour Party, will contest this election as a unified list. The current 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects near-certainty that the alliance will secure at least some representation in the 150-seat House of Representatives, which is a reasonable baseline given both parties' established parliamentary presence and the difficulty of falling below electoral thresholds in the Dutch proportional system.
Historical context shows GroenLinks and PvdA have maintained parliamentary seats consistently across multiple election cycles. In the 2023 election, GroenLinks won 8 seats and PvdA won 3 seats separately; their combined strength suggests the merged list will likely exceed single-digit representation. The market's extreme confidence reflects the structural reality that both parties have substantial voter bases and campaign infrastructure, making complete electoral failure highly improbable under normal circumstances.
Key catalysts include the formal election date announcement from the Dutch government, expected within weeks, and subsequent polling releases tracking the alliance's performance relative to other parties. Coalition negotiations following the election could affect seat allocation through post-election agreements, though this market resolves on direct electoral results. Traders should monitor Dutch political news sources and official government announcements regarding the election schedule, as any delay beyond 31 July 2026 would trigger resolution to the lowest bracket.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Netherlands parliamentary election: GroenLinks–PvdA seats" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$36K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for global elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 8 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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