Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Masoud Pezeshkian ceases to be President of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Masoud Pezeshkian's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| December 31 | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| March 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| June 30 | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| April 30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Masoud Pezeshkian became Iran's president in August 2024 following the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash. This market assesses whether Pezeshkian will be removed from, resign from, or otherwise cease to hold the presidency before the end of 2026. The 25% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects meaningful uncertainty around his tenure, though he currently holds the formal office and faces no imminent constitutional removal process.
Iranian presidential transitions have historically occurred through elections, deaths, or constitutional mechanisms rather than forced removals. Pezeshkian's predecessor Raisi died in office; before that, Hassan Rouhani completed two full terms. The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, retains ultimate authority over executive functions, but direct presidential removal remains uncommon. The current probability suggests traders assess genuine but minority-weighted risk of extraordinary circumstances—health crises, major political upheaval, or constitutional intervention—rather than routine political change.
Key catalysts include Iran's domestic economic conditions, which have deteriorated significantly with inflation and currency pressures documented through 2024. Parliamentary elections scheduled for March 2025 could shift political dynamics affecting presidential stability. International developments, particularly escalation in regional tensions or sanctions regimes, may create domestic political pressure. Traders should monitor statements from Khamenei's office regarding presidential authority, health announcements, and any constitutional court proceedings. The settlement window extends through end-2026, capturing roughly two years of potential political volatility in Iran's constrained institutional environment.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Masoud Pezeshkian out by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$594K in lifetime turnover and $29K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $95 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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