Trade: Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Market context

Hamas has not publicly committed to disarming in Gaza, and the 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the organisation's consistent rejection of such measures. The market tests whether Hamas will officially announce a commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military apparatus—whether wholly or in part—by the end of 2025. Current trading shows no meaningful buy interest at any price level, suggesting traders assess this outcome as functionally impossible within the timeframe.

Historical precedent offers limited optimism for this resolution. Armed Palestinian factions have rarely voluntarily disarmed; the Palestinian Authority's security forces operate under international agreements, but Hamas has maintained its military wing as central to its political identity and regional strategy since its founding in 1987. The 2008 Gaza ceasefire, 2012 truce, and subsequent agreements have involved weapons restrictions or ceasefires but never official disarmament announcements from Hamas leadership. Comparable cases—such as Hezbollah's refusal to disarm despite Lebanese government pressure—suggest organisations with deep ideological and security commitments resist such commitments absent existential pressure.

Traders monitoring this market should track ceasefire negotiations, Israeli-Palestinian diplomatic developments, and statements from Hamas's political and military leadership. Recent reporting from January 2025 indicates ongoing hostilities and reconstruction discussions rather than disarmament frameworks. Any formal announcement would require acknowledgment from widely recognised Hamas figures—currently Yahya Sinwar or the political bureau leadership—making the bar for resolution explicit and verifiable.

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$1.7M in lifetime turnover and $20K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for gaza contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.

Last 24 hours alone saw $56 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.

The market has been open for 9 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

Liquidity

USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Conditional token

ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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