Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Overwatch match between VARREL and Please Not Hero Ban in the OCS Asia Stage 1 Group B, initially scheduled for May 5 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "VARREL" if VARREL win the match against Please Not Hero Ban. This market will resolve to "Please Not Hero Ban" if Please Not Hero Ban win the match against VARREL. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
VARREL and Please Not Hero Ban are scheduled to compete in a best-of-two match within OCS Asia Stage 1 Group B on 5 May at 05:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for VARREL, indicating that traders are pricing in an overwhelming expectation of a VARREL victory. This extreme skew suggests either substantial confidence in VARREL's superiority or minimal liquidity at the extremes, with no meaningful counterweight from backers of Please Not Hero Ban.
Historical precedent in Overwatch competitive markets shows that such extreme probabilities typically emerge when one team holds a demonstrable skill or roster advantage, or when one side has suffered recent roster changes or personnel issues. Without recent roster announcements or significant roster turnover at either organisation, the current pricing likely reflects established competitive standing within the OCS Asia region. Teams with consistent tournament placements and stable lineups tend to command higher implied probabilities in group-stage fixtures.
Traders should monitor for any schedule changes, roster announcements, or player unavailability disclosures in the week leading to the match. The settlement window closes at 15:00 ET on 5 May, allowing a ten-hour window after the scheduled start time for the match to conclude. Any announcement of fixture postponement beyond 7 May would trigger a 50-50 resolution, whilst incomplete matches with a declared winner would resolve accordingly. Current market depth appears thin given the extreme probability, suggesting limited trading activity at present price levels.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/ow_esports. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Overwatch: VARREL vs Please Not Hero Ban (BO2) - OCS Asia Stage 1 Group B" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/ow_esports. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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