Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Matilde Mariani and Kira Pavlova in the ITF Women Monastir, originally scheduled for May 14, 2026 at 4:45AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matilde Mariani' if Matilde Mariani advances against Kira Pavlova. This market will resolve to 'Kira Pavlova' if Kira Pavlova advances against Matilde Mariani. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Monastir: Matilde Mariani vs Kira Pavlova | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Matilde Mariani faces Kira Pavlova in the ITF Women's tournament at Monastir, scheduled for 14 May 2026. The match represents a lower-tier professional fixture on the International Tennis Federation circuit, where both players compete for ranking points and prize money. The current order book on Polymarket prices Mariani's advancement at 9%, implying Pavlova is heavily favoured at approximately 91% implied probability. This substantial gap reflects either a significant disparity in player form, ranking, or head-to-head record, or limited liquidity in the order book creating wider spreads.
ITF Women's matches at this level typically feature players ranked outside the WTA top 200, where outcomes can be volatile and dependent on surface conditions, recent match fitness, and mental resilience over longer formats. Historical ITF tournament data shows that lower-seeded or unseeded players do occasionally upset favourites, particularly in single-elimination draws where one poor set can prove decisive. The 9% probability suggests the market views Mariani as a significant underdog, though not impossible.
Traders should monitor official ITF tournament draws and any late withdrawals or schedule changes closer to 14 May. Surface conditions at Monastir—typically clay—may favour particular playing styles. Injury updates or recent match results for either player posted to the WTA or ITF websites in the week before play could shift sentiment. The settlement window extends to 21 May, allowing seven days for completion; any match delay beyond that triggers a 50-50 resolution, introducing additional tail risk for positions held through the scheduled date.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Monastir: Matilde Mariani vs Kira Pavlova" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $541 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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