Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Honori Koyama and Jeong Moon in the ITF Women Toyama, originally scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 11:15PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Honori Koyama' if Honori Koyama advances against Jeong Moon. This market will resolve to 'Jeong Moon' if Jeong Moon advances against Honori Koyama. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Toyama: Honori Koyama vs Jeong Moon | 34% YES | 67% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 51% NO |
Honori Koyama faces Jeong Moon in an ITF Women's tournament match in Toyama, Japan, scheduled for 13 May 2026. The market currently reflects a 34% implied probability for Koyama's advancement, suggesting the order book on Polymarket is pricing Jeong Moon as the favoured outcome. This probability formation occurs ahead of the match, with settlement contingent on a decisive result by 21 May 2026.
ITF Women's circuit matches at this tier typically feature significant variance in outcomes, particularly when comparing players from different regional circuits. Koyama's 34% probability sits in the range where historical ITF matchups show competitive uncertainty, especially when one player holds a seeding advantage or recent momentum. Comparable lower-tier professional tennis markets often see probabilities shift materially in the final 48 hours before play as late information on player fitness, court conditions, and recent form enters the market.
Traders should monitor official ITF tournament updates and player social media for withdrawal announcements, which would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause if the match is not played. Court surface conditions in Toyama during May, typically hard courts, may favour particular playing styles. Any scheduling changes beyond the seven-day window would also invoke the tie resolution. Recent ATP and WTA circuit results for either player's training partners or regional competitors could provide indirect signals about current form, though ITF results remain the most direct comparable data point for assessing relative strength at this level.
Akiko Itoyama is a Japanese novelist. She has won the Akutagawa Prize, the Kawabata Yasunari Prize, and the Tanizaki Prize, and her work has been adapted for film.
Kazuko Ito-Yamaizumi was an international table tennis player from Japan.
Eitaro Itoyama is one of Japan's wealthiest citizens with a fortune estimated to exceed $500 million. He is a controversial figure in Japanese political and commercial life.
Ikuto Yamashita is a Japanese manga artist and designer from Gifu Prefecture. He is currently based in and continuing to live in Gifu Prefecture.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Toyama: Honori Koyama vs Jeong Moon" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $408 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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