Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming 2. Bundesliga game, scheduled for Friday, May 8, 2026 between SC Paderborn 07 and Karlsruher SC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| SC Paderborn 07 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw (SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Karlsruher SC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
SC Paderborn 07 will host Karlsruher SC in the 2. Bundesliga on Friday, 8 May 2026. The settlement window closes at 16:30 UTC on that date, coinciding with the match kick-off. The current order book on Polymarket shows a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, indicating traders are pricing this event with extreme scepticism or that minimal liquidity exists at present price levels.
The 0% probability reflects either a structural issue with how the market has been framed or genuine conviction that the underlying condition cannot occur. Historical precedent suggests such extreme probabilities in football markets typically emerge when settlement criteria are ambiguous, when the event date has passed unnoticed, or when traders perceive the market as mispriced relative to fundamental expectations. Given the settlement window aligns precisely with match time, traders should verify whether the market intends to resolve on a specific outcome (Paderborn win, draw, Karlsruher win) or on an alternative condition entirely.
Key catalysts include team news, injury announcements, and final-day league standings that could affect both clubs' motivation heading into May. The 2. Bundesliga season structure and any playoff implications for either side will shape tactical approaches. Traders should monitor official Bundesliga communications and club statements in the weeks preceding the fixture, as these typically drive repricing in football markets. The current zero probability warrants scrutiny of the exact settlement criteria before committing capital.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/2bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$98K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $97K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/2bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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