Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit Week of May 11 2026?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ $156 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| ↑ $153 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| ↑ $150 | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| ↑ $147 | 15% YES | 85% NO |
| ↑ $144 | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| ↑ $141 | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| ↑ $138 | 73% YES | 27% NO |
| ↓ $135 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Palantir Technologies' share price will either breach a specific threshold during the week commencing 11 May 2026, or it will not. The settlement window closes on 15 May at 20:00 UTC, capturing a five-trading-day window. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 7% implied probability, suggesting traders assess this outcome as unlikely under prevailing market conditions and available information.
Historical precedent for Palantir's volatility offers context. The company has experienced sharp single-week moves during earnings seasons and following government contract announcements, though sustained breakouts above psychological price levels typically require either material revenue guidance revisions or significant new customer wins. Comparable software and defence-technology firms have shown that week-long price targets require either pre-announced catalysts or unexpected market-moving news; baseline probability for arbitrary thresholds without scheduled events typically clusters between 5–15%, depending on the distance from current trading ranges.
Traders should monitor scheduled earnings calls, any Defence Department procurement announcements, or quarterly guidance updates in the week prior to settlement. Palantir's stock has historically responded to commercial-segment growth signals and international expansion news. Volatility clustering around options expiry and index rebalancing in mid-May could amplify intraweek moves. The 7% probability on Polymarket's order book reflects both the specificity of the target and the absence of announced catalysts within the settlement window as of the current date.
Palantir Technologies Inc. is an American publicly traded company that develops data integration and analytics platforms. Headquartered in Miami, Florida, it was founded in 2003 by Peter Thiel, Stephen Cohen, Joe Lonsdale, Alex Karp, and Nathan Gettings.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.PLTR%2FUSD. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit Week of May 11 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$801 in lifetime turnover and $57K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $801 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.PLTR%2FUSD. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: