Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The Lemonade Stand Podcast is scheduled to release episodes every Wednesday. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the next released episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If clips of old episodes or prerecorded clips are aired where people are speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution. Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Iran | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| China | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Collateral | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Fiduciary | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Sweden | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Gold | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Gavin / Newsom | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Anthropic | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The Lemonade Stand Podcast releases new episodes each Wednesday. This market resolves to "Yes" if a specified term appears in the next episode airing on or before 6 May 2026, regardless of context or grammatical form. The resolution criteria explicitly include prerecorded clips and AI-generated audio, broadening the scope beyond live discussion.
The 0% implied probability reflects either minimal historical frequency of the target term on the show or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful price discovery on Polymarket's order book. Without access to episode transcripts or a public archive of discussed topics, traders must rely on the show's format and guest roster to assess likelihood. Comparable prediction markets on podcast content typically show low baseline probabilities for niche terminology unless the show has established patterns of covering specific sectors or themes.
The critical catalyst is the episode's release schedule and guest selection. Traders should monitor whether the podcast announces its 6 May episode guest list in advance—industry figures or thematic focus could signal whether the term is likely to surface. The show's production timeline and any promotional materials released mid-week may provide signals about episode content. Additionally, if the podcast maintains publicly available episode notes or social media previews, these would offer concrete information about discussion topics before resolution.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (May 6)" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$14K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: