Trade: Will Deere & Co (DE) beat quarterly earnings?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: As of market creation, Deere & Co is estimated to release earnings on May 21, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Deere & Co's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $5.74 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Deere & Co reports GAAP EPS greater than $5.74 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Deere & Co releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $33
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Will Deere & Co (DE) beat quarterly earnings? | 86% YES | 14% NO |
Market context
Deere & Co will report first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on 21 May 2026, with consensus expectations for GAAP EPS of $5.74. The 86% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects a relatively high confidence that the agricultural equipment manufacturer will exceed this threshold. This probability formation suggests traders are pricing in a modest earnings beat, with the order book currently weighted toward affirmative resolution.
Deere's historical earnings performance provides context for assessing this probability. Over the past eight quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in six instances, establishing a track record of roughly 75% beat frequency. However, the agricultural sector faces cyclical pressures tied to commodity prices, farm income levels, and equipment demand. Recent volatility in crop prices and farmer sentiment has created uncertainty around dealer inventory levels and order flow heading into the spring season, which typically drives first-quarter results.
Key catalysts for traders to monitor include any pre-earnings guidance adjustments from management, dealer commentary on order trends, and macroeconomic signals affecting farm profitability. Deere's previous quarterly calls have highlighted supply chain normalisation and pricing power as offsetting factors against demand headwinds. The settlement window closes at 13:00 UTC on 21 May, coinciding with the earnings release. Traders should track any announcements regarding restructuring charges or one-time items that could affect reported GAAP EPS relative to the consensus figure.
Wikipedia Context
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John DeereDeere & Company, doing business as John Deere, is an American corporation that manufactures agricultural machinery, heavy equipment, forestry machinery, diesel engines, drivetrains used in heavy equipment and lawn care equipment. It also provides financial services and other related activities.
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John Deere World HeadquartersThe John Deere World Headquarters is the corporate headquarters for the agricultural equipment manufacturing company John Deere in Moline, Illinois, United States. The complex consists of four structures, three of which are interconnected. Eero Saarinen designed the original two structures, namely the main and display buildings. Roche-Dinkeloo, a firm founde
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Timonium, MarylandTimonium is a census-designated place (CDP) in Baltimore County, Maryland, United States. As of the 2020 census, it has a population of 10,458. Prior to 2010 the area was part of the Lutherville-Timonium CDP.
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Alan DeereAir Commodore Alan Christopher Deere, was a New Zealand fighter ace with the Royal Air Force (RAF) during the Second World War. He was also known for several near-death experiences over the course of the war. This led to his published autobiography being titled Nine Lives.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://seekingalpha.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will Deere & Co (DE) beat quarterly earnings?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 86% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $116 if YES resolves true — a 16% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $33 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Will Deere & Co (DE) beat quarterly earnings?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 86%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://seekingalpha.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will Deere & Co (DE) beat quarterly earnings?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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