Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Cut–Pause–Pause | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Cut–Pause–Cut | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Cut–Cut–Pause | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Cut–Cut–Cut | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Pause–Pause–Pause | 90% YES | 10% NO |
| Pause–Pause–Cut | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Pause–Cut–Pause | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Pause–Cut–Cut | 1% YES | 99% NO |
The Federal Reserve will convene for three monetary policy meetings between late April and late July 2026, with markets currently pricing zero probability of any rate cut across this window. The upper bound of the federal funds rate serves as the key metric; a qualifying cut would lower this level from its current setting, whilst a qualifying hike would raise it. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects trader conviction that the Fed will either hold rates steady or increase them during this three-meeting span.
Historical context suggests that rate cuts typically cluster during economic downturns or when inflation pressures have materially subsided. The Fed's cutting cycle in 2024 began only after inflation had declined substantially from its 2022 peaks, and cuts proceeded gradually. The current pricing implies traders assess economic conditions through mid-2026 as unlikely to warrant easing, whether due to persistent inflation, labour market resilience, or fiscal dynamics. Comparable periods of extended holds or tightening cycles have typically required significant deterioration in growth or sharp disinflation to reverse course.
Traders monitoring this market should track incoming inflation data, employment reports, and Fed communications ahead of each meeting. The April employment report and March inflation figures will be critical inputs for the first meeting. Any unexpected weakness in labour markets or sharp drop in core inflation could shift probabilities materially. Additionally, fiscal policy developments and Treasury yield movements will influence Fed expectations, as will any statements from Fed officials regarding the policy path through mid-2026.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$48K in lifetime turnover and $46K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for fed contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $10 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 29 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: