Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of 3Jane's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If 3Jane (https://x.com/3janexyz) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $80M | 59% YES | 41% NO |
| $200M | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| $40M | 69% YES | 32% NO |
| $100M | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| $300M | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| $2B | 17% YES | 84% NO |
| $1.5B | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| $400M | 49% YES | 52% NO |
The 3Jane governance token will launch with public transferability and tradability at some point before the resolution window closes on 1 January 2028. The market is pricing whether the fully diluted valuation—calculated as total token supply multiplied by the token's price—will exceed a specified threshold on the calendar day following launch, measured at 4:00 PM ET. The current 59% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about both the launch timing and the initial market valuation the token will command upon becoming tradable.
Comparable token launches from established projects show highly variable initial FDV outcomes depending on pre-launch hype, allocation structures, and market conditions at the moment of launch. Projects with substantial venture backing and community engagement have historically achieved higher FDVs within the first day, whilst those with limited pre-launch visibility or unfavourable market conditions have often traded below expectations. The probability distribution here suggests traders view 3Jane as having moderate pre-launch momentum but face uncertainty about execution and market reception.
Key variables include the precise launch date, which remains unannounced, and broader cryptocurrency market conditions at that moment. Any material announcements from 3Jane regarding tokenomics, allocation details, or partnership developments could shift trader positioning. The settlement relies on the most liquid price source available at the specified time, meaning the token must achieve sufficient trading volume for reliable price discovery. Traders monitoring 3Jane's social channels and development updates will have early signals about launch readiness and potential market appetite.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "3Jane FDV above 2028 one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for fdv contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2028. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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