Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT May 10 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 11 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT May 10 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 11 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Ethereum Up or Down on May 11? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market captures intraday volatility in Ethereum's price between two specific noon timestamps on consecutive days in May 2026, settling on the directional movement between the 12:00 ET candle close on May 10 and the 12:00 ET candle close on May 11. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 36% implied probability for upward movement, suggesting traders are pricing in a slight bias towards price decline over this 24-hour window.
Historical precedent for single-day Ethereum moves shows considerable variance depending on macro conditions and protocol developments. During periods of elevated volatility—such as post-Federal Reserve announcements or major Ethereum upgrade deployments—intraday directional swings of 3–8% are routine. Conversely, in low-volatility regimes, moves of less than 1% between noon timestamps occur frequently. The current 36% probability suggests the market is moderately weighted towards downside, though this remains relatively balanced given the binary nature of the bet.
Traders monitoring this market should track scheduled economic data releases on May 10–11, particularly US inflation figures or employment reports that typically drive risk-asset repricing. Ethereum-specific catalysts include any announced protocol changes, staking yield adjustments, or major exchange flow data. Binance's own operational status and liquidity conditions during the noon ET window will directly influence the settlement candle formation. Volatility clustering—where price movements on May 10 often predict directional bias for May 11—remains a relevant technical consideration for positioning ahead of the settlement window closing on May 11 at 16:00 ET.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Ethereum Up or Down on May 11?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$70K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for ethereum contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $64K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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