Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1,800 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 1,900 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 2,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 2,100 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 2,200 | 98% YES | 2% NO |
| 2,300 | 69% YES | 32% NO |
| 2,400 | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| 2,500 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
This market settles on Ethereum's price at precisely noon Eastern Time on 11 May 2026, using the one-minute candle close on Binance's ETH/USDT pair. The settlement hinges on a single data point—the closing price of that specific minute—rather than daily or hourly averages, making it sensitive to intraday volatility and order flow timing around the noon ET mark.
The 100% implied probability reflects the market's assessment that Ethereum will trade above the specified threshold at that exact moment. Historical precedent suggests such certainty typically emerges when the threshold is set substantially below prevailing spot prices, leaving minimal room for a reversal that would breach it. Comparable Ethereum price markets on Polymarket show that when settlement windows extend years into the future, crowd probability tends to compress toward extremes unless the target price sits near current trading ranges. The order book formation here indicates traders perceive downside risk to that level as negligible over the 18-month horizon.
Catalysts affecting Ethereum's trajectory through May 2026 include regulatory developments around staking and smart contract frameworks, adoption metrics from major institutional integrations, and macroeconomic shifts influencing risk appetite for digital assets. Bitcoin's price action typically correlates with Ethereum movements, though Ethereum's own network upgrades and DeFi ecosystem developments can create divergence. Traders monitoring this market should track Ethereum Foundation announcements and broader crypto market sentiment, though the extended timeframe suggests that near-term price action carries less weight than structural factors determining whether Ethereum sustains above the threshold level.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ethereum above ___ on May 11?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$102K in lifetime turnover and $252K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for ethereum contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $63K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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