Trade: Will 100 Thieves qualify to a S-tier tournament by June 1 ?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if 100 Thieves' CS2 roster qualifies for (i.e., participates in the main event/group stage of) any S-Tier CS2 tournament that concludes by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, an "S-Tier Event" refers to any tournament classified as S-Tier on Liquipedia.net. Online-only events, or events downgraded prior to event start (e.g., downgraded to A-Tier due to team attendance) do not qualify. If an S-Tier event is downgraded after it has concluded, this event will still qualify as an "S-Tier Event".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $71
- Total Volume
- $21K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| Will 100 Thieves qualify to a S-tier tournament by June 1 ? | 6% YES | 94% NO |
Market context
The question concerns whether 100 Thieves' Counter-Strike 2 roster will secure a spot in the main event of any S-tier tournament concluding by June 2026. Currently trading at 6% on Polymarket's order book, the probability reflects significant scepticism about the North American organisation's competitive trajectory over the next eighteen months.
Historical context suggests this pricing is severe but not unprecedented for rosters outside the established elite. 100 Thieves has struggled to maintain consistent S-tier qualification since the CS2 transition, competing primarily in A-tier and regional events throughout 2024 and early 2025. Comparable organisations with similar competitive standing have required substantial roster overhauls or extended qualification runs to breach S-tier events. The organisation's recent results and roster stability indicate limited momentum, which underpins the low implied probability. For reference, teams requiring qualification through open brackets or regional qualifiers face substantially lower conversion rates than those with direct invitations.
Traders should monitor several catalysts: announcements regarding roster changes or coaching staff, the publication of S-tier tournament schedules and qualification formats for the first half of 2026, and 100 Thieves' performance in upcoming A-tier competitions. Recent reporting from HLTV and esports news outlets suggests the organisation is evaluating its competitive structure, though no major roster moves have materialised. The timing of major tournaments—particularly whether any S-tier events feature open or regional qualification paths—will materially affect the probability. Additionally, any significant sponsorship or investment announcements could signal renewed competitive commitment.
Wikipedia Context
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100 Thieves100 Thieves, LLC is an American lifestyle brand and gaming organization based in Los Angeles, California, founded in 2017 by Matthew "Nadeshot" Haag. The organization competes in several video games, including Apex Legends, Call of Duty, Counter-Strike 2, Rainbow Six Siege, Marvel Rivals, and Valorant.
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ARITH Symposium on Computer Arithmetic
The IEEE International Symposium on Computer Arithmetic (ARITH) is a conference in the area of computer arithmetic. The symposium was established in 1969, initially as three-year event, then as a biennial event, and, finally, from 2015 as an annual symposium.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will 100 Thieves qualify to a S-tier tournament by June 1 ?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 6% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $1667 if YES resolves true — a 1567% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$21K in lifetime turnover and $71 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Will 100 Thieves qualify to a S-tier tournament by June 1 ? "?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 6%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will 100 Thieves qualify to a S-tier tournament by June 1 ? "?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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