Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Valorant Upper bracket final match between VARREL and Team Secret in the Esports World Cup Pacific Qualifier Stage 1, initially scheduled for May 12 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "VARREL" if VARREL win the match against Team Secret. This market will resolve to "Team Secret" if Team Secret win the match against VARREL. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs VARREL (+1.5) | 27% YES | 74% NO |
VARREL and Team Secret are set to compete in the upper bracket final of the Esports World Cup Pacific Qualifier Stage 1 for Valorant on 12 May at 04:00 ET. The winner advances directly to the next stage, whilst the loser drops to the lower bracket. This best-of-three match represents a critical juncture in the regional qualification pathway, with both teams having navigated earlier rounds to reach this position. The current Polymarket order book implies a 44% probability for VARREL victory, pricing Team Secret as the marginal favourite at 56%.
Team Secret has established itself as a consistent performer in Pacific Valorant, with recent tournament placements demonstrating stability across roster iterations. VARREL, conversely, has shown variable results depending on map pool and opponent matchup. Historical upper bracket finals in this region have favoured teams with established anti-stratting capabilities and proven LAN experience, factors that typically correlate with higher seeding. The probability distribution reflects Team Secret's track record whilst acknowledging VARREL's capacity to execute on specific tactical reads.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any last-minute substitutions in the days preceding the match, as injury or availability changes have occasionally affected Pacific qualifier outcomes. Scrim results and map veto patterns from recent bootcamps may surface on community channels and provide directional signals. The settlement window closes at 14:00 UTC on 12 May; matches delayed beyond seven days without completion trigger a 50-50 resolution, creating tail-risk considerations for positions held through the scheduled window.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://vlr.gg. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valorant: VARREL vs Team Secret (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Qualifier Stage 1" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $31K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://vlr.gg. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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