Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Valorant Grand final match between Ghools Esports and BAAM Esports in the VCL MENA: Resilience Pulse Stage North Africa Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 14 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Ghools Esports" if Ghools Esports win the match against BAAM Esports. This market will resolve to "BAAM Esports" if BAAM Esports win the match against Ghools Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 61% YES | 40% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 56% YES | 44% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 56% YES | 44% NO |
| Map 3 Winner | 56% YES | 44% NO |
| Map 4 Winner | 55% YES | 45% NO |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map Handicap: GLS (-1.5) vs BAAM Esports (+1.5) | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Ghools Esports and BAAM Esports are set to contest the grand final of the VCL MENA: Resilience Pulse Stage North Africa Playoffs in Valorant on 14 May at 12:00 PM ET. The winner claims the regional title and associated prize pool. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 61% implied probability for Ghools, suggesting the market views them as the favoured side, though BAAM holds material backing at the complementary odds.
North African Valorant competition has historically produced competitive matchups where seeding and playoff momentum carry significant weight. Ghools' positioning at this probability level indicates prior tournament performance and perceived roster strength relative to BAAM, though the BO5 format introduces variance—best-of-five series frequently see lower-seeded or underdog teams mount comebacks that shorter formats preclude. Recent VCL MENA tournaments have shown regional teams capable of tactical adaptation mid-series, making the 39% probability assigned to BAAM non-trivial.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any schedule adjustments through the settlement window closing 22:00 UTC on 14 May. Valorant patch updates in the days preceding the match can shift agent meta and preparation timelines. Any official announcements regarding venue changes, technical issues, or postponements would materially affect settlement conditions, particularly the seven-day delay clause. Team scrimmage results or public practice footage emerging before match day occasionally shift market perception, though such information typically reflects in the order book incrementally rather than triggering sharp moves.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/valorantesports_ar. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valorant: Ghools Esports vs BAAM Esports (BO5) - VCL MENA: Resilience Pulse Stage North Africa Playo" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$10 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $10 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/valorantesports_ar. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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