Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 1 match between Yawara Esports and Vexa in the BetBoom Storm Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 11 at 7:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Yawara Esports" if Yawara Esports win the match against Vexa. This market will resolve to "Vexa" if Vexa win the match against Yawara Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 83% YES | 18% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 75% YES | 25% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 79% YES | 21% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 34% YES | 67% NO |
| Map Handicap: YAW (-1.5) vs Vexa (+1.5) | 34% YES | 67% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Yawara Esports face Vexa in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match during the BetBoom Storm Group Stage, scheduled for 11 May at 7:00PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects an 83% implied probability for a Yawara victory, suggesting the market views them as clear favourites. This pricing emerges from real-time trading activity rather than a single source, with the spread between bid and ask orders indicating the confidence level traders assign to the outcome.
Yawara's positioning as heavy favourites aligns with typical group-stage dynamics where seeding and recent form heavily influence match outcomes. In lower-tier competitive Counter-Strike tournaments, teams ranked higher in regional standings or with recent LAN placements tend to convert group-stage matches at rates consistent with 75–85% implied probabilities. Comparable matches from similar regional qualifiers show that when one team carries significantly stronger recent results or roster stability, the favourite wins approximately 80–85% of the time, providing a baseline for evaluating whether current pricing reflects genuine skill gaps or market overconfidence.
Traders should monitor fixture confirmations through official BetBoom Storm communications, as scheduling delays or roster changes announced within 48 hours of match time can shift probabilities materially. Recent esports betting markets have shown sensitivity to last-minute stand-in announcements or technical issues affecting team preparation. The settlement window extends to 12 May at 05:00:00Z, providing a one-day buffer beyond the scheduled start time; matches delayed beyond seven days from the original date without completion trigger a 50-50 resolution, creating a tail risk for positions held through extended postponements.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/dust2br. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Vexa (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$380 in lifetime turnover and $10K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $380 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/dust2br. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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