Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between tincan and OlyBet SB in the ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 11 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "tincan" if tincan win the match against OlyBet SB. This market will resolve to "OlyBet SB" if OlyBet SB win the match against tincan. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
tincan and OlyBet SB are scheduled to face off in a best-of-one Counter-Strike match on 11 May at 14:00 ET as part of the ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 46% implied probability for tincan's victory, suggesting the market views OlyBet SB as slight favourites. This probability has formed through real-time trading activity, with the spread between bid and ask orders indicating moderate liquidity and confidence in the matchup's outcome.
Both teams compete in ESEA Advanced, a mid-tier European competitive circuit where roster stability and recent form carry substantial weight. Historical precedent in similar European Advanced-tier fixtures shows that teams with consistent line-ups and recent tournament appearances tend to outperform those with roster churn or extended breaks. The 46% probability for tincan implies the market has factored in their recent performance trajectory relative to OlyBet SB's current standing, though the relatively tight odds suggest meaningful uncertainty about the outcome.
Traders should monitor for last-minute roster changes, player availability announcements, or schedule delays in the 48 hours preceding the match. ESEA Advanced fixtures occasionally face postponements due to player conflicts or technical issues. Any official communication from either organisation regarding stand-ins or format changes would likely shift the order book. The settlement window closes 12 May at 00:00 UTC, allowing a one-day buffer beyond the scheduled match time; matches delayed beyond seven days from the original date trigger a 50-50 resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://hltv.org. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: tincan vs OlyBet SB (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$9 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $9 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://hltv.org. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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