Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between Natus Vincere and GamerLegion in the IEM Atlanta Group B, initially scheduled for May 12 at 4:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against GamerLegion. This market will resolve to "GamerLegion" if GamerLegion win the match against Natus Vincere. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 73% YES | 28% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) | 59% YES | 41% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Natus Vincere face GamerLegion in an upper bracket semifinal of the IEM Atlanta Counter-Strike tournament, scheduled for 12 May at 21:30 UTC. The match is a best-of-three format within Group B, with the winner advancing further in the competition. Polymarket's order book currently prices Natus Vincere at 73% implied probability, reflecting substantial backing for the Ukrainian organisation.
Natus Vincere have established themselves as consistent performers at premier Counter-Strike events, regularly competing in deep tournament runs across 2024 and 2025. GamerLegion, by contrast, represent a lower-seeded challenger in this bracket. Historical precedent suggests upper-bracket favourites in IEM events tend to convert at rates broadly aligned with 70%+ probability markets, though upsets do occur when preparation gaps or tactical mismatches favour underdogs. The current pricing reflects Natus Vincere's roster strength and recent form relative to GamerLegion's tournament trajectory.
Traders should monitor official IEM Atlanta scheduling updates for any delays or roster changes announced before the match window. Player availability, particularly any last-minute substitutions, could shift the probability meaningfully. The settlement window extends to 13 May at 02:30 UTC, providing a seven-day buffer for completion. Fixture congestion across the broader tournament schedule and any technical issues during group play could affect team preparation time, though such factors typically emerge only days before matches. Confirmation of final lineups and any coaching adjustments will be the primary catalysts affecting market movement in the hours preceding play.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/ESLCS. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$327 in lifetime turnover and $16K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $327 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/ESLCS. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: