Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 3 match between Gaimin Gladiators and Heroic in the IEM Cologne Major Stage 1, initially scheduled for June 3 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Gaimin Gladiators" if Gaimin Gladiators win the match against Heroic. This market will resolve to "Heroic" if Heroic win the match against Gaimin Gladiators. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 16% YES | 85% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 32% YES | 68% NO |
| Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs Gaimin Gladiators (+1.5) | 60% YES | 41% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Gaimin Gladiators face Heroic in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match at IEM Cologne Major Stage 1, scheduled for 3 June at 1:00 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket prices Gladiators at 17 per cent implied probability, reflecting substantial favouritism towards Heroic. This pricing emerges from real-time trading activity where the spread between bid and ask orders crystallises the crowd's assessment of each team's likelihood of victory in this single-elimination stage match.
Heroic enters as the stronger-ranked side, consistently performing at top-tier events throughout 2025 and 2026. Gladiators, whilst competitive, have historically struggled against established Danish and European squads at major tournaments. The 17 per cent probability aligns with typical market pricing for significant skill differentials in professional Counter-Strike, where upsets occur but remain statistically uncommon at this competitive level.
Traders should monitor team roster confirmations and any last-minute lineup changes in the 48 hours before the match, as substitutions can materially shift win probabilities. Fixture scheduling delays are possible given the tournament's multi-day format; the settlement window extends to 23:00 UTC on 3 June, providing a buffer for matches running behind schedule. Recent IEM events have generally proceeded on time, though technical issues or unforeseen circumstances could trigger the tie-resolution clause if the match remains incomplete beyond seven days.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/ESLCSb. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$100K in lifetime turnover and $44K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $100K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/ESLCSb. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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