Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 1 match between Team Falcons and K27 in the PGL Astana Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 9 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win the match against K27. This market will resolve to "K27" if K27 win the match against Team Falcons. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 88% YES | 13% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 78% YES | 23% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 82% YES | 19% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 33% YES | 67% NO |
| Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs K27 (+1.5) | 64% YES | 37% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Team Falcons face K27 in a Counter-Strike best-of-three match during the PGL Astana Group Stage, scheduled for 9 May at 07:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket prices Team Falcons at 88% implied probability, reflecting substantial confidence in the favoured side. This pricing emerges from real-time trading activity rather than a single source; the spread between bid and ask orders forms the consensus probability visible to traders entering the market today.
Team Falcons represent a significantly higher-ranked roster in professional Counter-Strike, competing regularly in tier-one tournaments, whilst K27 operates at a lower competitive tier. Historical group-stage matchups between disparate skill levels typically settle toward the stronger team, though upsets occur in best-of-three formats where map selection and tactical preparation can narrow margins. The 88% probability aligns with conventional expectations for such pairings, though the 12% residual reflects genuine uncertainty inherent in single-match outcomes and the possibility of unexpected preparation or performance variance.
Traders should monitor official PGL Astana communications for any schedule changes, roster confirmations, or technical issues that might affect match timing. The settlement window closes at 17:00 UTC on 9 May, providing a hard deadline; matches delayed beyond seven days without completion trigger a 50-50 resolution. Recent esports scheduling disruptions have occasionally created arbitrage opportunities, making fixture confirmation and venue stability worth tracking through PGL's official channels and team announcements in the 48 hours preceding the match.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$157K in lifetime turnover and $150K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $102K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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