Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 5 match between cirahvi and TOOMUCHVIDEOGAMES in the Elisa Open Suomi Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 11 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "cirahvi" if cirahvi win the match against TOOMUCHVIDEOGAMES. This market will resolve to "TOOMUCHVIDEOGAMES" if TOOMUCHVIDEOGAMES win the match against cirahvi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 69% YES | 32% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 66% YES | 34% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 66% YES | 34% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map Handicap: CRH (-1.5) vs TOOMUCHVIDEOGAMES (+1.5) | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Round 5 of the Elisa Open Suomi Regular Season will feature a best-of-three Counter-Strike match between cirahvi and TOOMUCHVIDEOGAMES on 11 May at 1:00PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket prices cirahvi's victory at 69%, reflecting a substantial but not overwhelming favourite position. This probability has formed through active trading on the platform's order book, where backers of cirahvi have pushed the YES side higher than typical opening odds for matches involving regional Finnish teams in this tier of competition.
Comparable matches in the Elisa Open Suomi suggest that 69% pricing for a favoured team in a regular season round typically reflects either established map pool advantages or recent head-to-head form. Without recent public match data between these specific opponents, traders are likely anchoring on cirahvi's historical performance in the league structure and general competitive standing within the Finnish scene. The 31% implied probability for TOOMUCHVIDEOGAMES indicates meaningful uncertainty—consistent with how regional tournaments price teams with less consistent public exposure.
Traders should monitor the official Elisa Open Suomi schedule for any fixture changes or postponements before the 11 May settlement deadline. The market's 7-day delay clause means any rescheduling beyond 18 May would trigger a 50-50 resolution. Roster changes or player availability announcements in the days preceding the match could shift the order book materially, particularly if either team experiences unexpected roster disruptions typical of lower-tier competitive scenes.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/elisaviihdesport. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: cirahvi vs TOOMUCHVIDEOGAMES (BO3) - Elisa Open Suomi Regular Season" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$10 in lifetime turnover and $10K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $10 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/elisaviihdesport. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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