Equities

Trade: Will New York Times (NYT) beat quarterly earnings?

100% YES 0% NO

Opened · Settles

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: As of market creation, New York Times is estimated to release earnings on May 6, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for New York Times’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.47 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if New York Times reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.47 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If New York Times releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity
—
Total Volume
$7K
24h Volume
—
Open Interest
$4K
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Market outcomes

Will New York Times (NYT) beat quarterly earnings? 100% YES0% NO

Market context

New York Times is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 earnings on 6 May, with Street consensus targeting non-GAAP EPS of $0.47. The market resolves affirmatively if reported earnings exceed this threshold. Currently, Polymarket's order book reflects 100% implied probability for a beat, suggesting traders assess NYT as highly likely to clear the consensus figure. This pricing reflects either confidence in the company's earnings trajectory or minimal trading activity establishing a floor price rather than genuine conviction.

NYT has demonstrated consistent earnings performance over recent quarters, having beaten consensus in three of its last four quarterly releases. The company's digital subscription revenue—which now comprises roughly 70% of total revenue—has provided a stable earnings base, though growth rates have moderated from pandemic-era peaks. Historical precedent suggests that when Street estimates for mature digital-subscription businesses sit at modest levels like $0.47, beats become more probable simply due to conservative forecasting.

Key catalysts before settlement include any material changes to subscriber guidance or advertising trends, though NYT typically provides limited forward commentary between earnings releases. The company faces ongoing sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions affecting advertising spend and discretionary consumer spending on subscriptions. Traders should monitor any interim announcements regarding subscriber churn or pricing changes in April, as these could shift earnings expectations in the final weeks before the 6 May release.

Wikipedia Context

  • The New York Times
    The New York Times

    The New York Times (NYT) is a newspaper based in Manhattan, New York City. The New York Times covers domestic, national, and international news, and publishes opinion pieces and reviews. One of the longest-running newspapers in the United States, the Times serves as one of the country's newspapers of record. As of August 2025, The New York Times had 11.88 mi

  • The New York Times International Edition
    The New York Times International Edition

    The New York Times International Edition is an English-language daily newspaper distributed internationally by the New York Times Company. It has been published in two separate periods, one from 1943 to 1967 and one from 2013 to the present.

  • The New York Times Strands
    The New York Times Strands

    Strands is an online word game created by The New York Times. Released into beta in March 2024, Strands is a part of the New York Times Games library. Strands takes the form of a word search, with new puzzles released once every day. The original pitch for the game was created by Juliette Seive, and puzzles are edited by Tracy Bennett.

  • New York Times Youth Forum
    New York Times Youth Forum

    New York Times Youth Forum is a public affairs program, sponsored by The New York Times and aired Sundays at 5pm EST on the now-defunct DuMont Television Network from September 14, 1952, to June 14, 1953. The host was Dorothy Gordon, who continued to host the show on WABD from the time the network closed in 1956 until 1958 when it moved to WRCA-TV).

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://seekingalpha.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Will New York Times (NYT) beat quarterly earnings?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

  1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
  2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
  3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
  4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 100% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $100 if YES resolves true — a 0% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
  5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
  6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$7K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for equities contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share
A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB
Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity
USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle
The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage
The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token
ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

What is the current probability for "Will New York Times (NYT) beat quarterly earnings?"?

As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://seekingalpha.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Will New York Times (NYT) beat quarterly earnings?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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