Trade: Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $19K
- Total Volume
- $552K
- 24h Volume
- $9K
- Open Interest
- $132K
Market outcomes
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | 10% YES | 91% NO |
Market context
Ghislaine Maxwell, the British socialite convicted in 2021 of sex trafficking and conspiracy related to Jeffrey Epstein's abuse network, is currently serving a 20-year federal sentence. The question of whether Donald Trump might issue her a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve between July 2025 and the end of 2026 hinges on political calculation and Trump's historical use of executive clemency powers.
Trump's first term saw 143 pardons and 94 commutations, with several controversial decisions including those for associates like Paul Manafort and Roger Stone. However, Maxwell's case differs materially: she was convicted under the sex trafficking statute with substantial victim testimony, and any pardon would face immediate public backlash given the Epstein scandal's enduring cultural resonance. Comparable cases—such as Trump's refusal to pardon Julian Assange despite libertarian pressure—suggest high-profile figures connected to sensitive matters face steeper clemency barriers. The 10% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects this low baseline likelihood, though it acknowledges non-zero political risk.
Traders should monitor several developments: any public statements from Trump regarding Maxwell or Epstein-related matters; shifts in Trump's relationship with victims' advocates or Republican leadership; and broader patterns in his clemency decisions during 2025–2026. Maxwell's legal team has not filed formal commutation petitions as of recent reporting, and her case lacks the organised advocacy networks that typically precede successful clemency grants. The settlement window extends through year-end 2026, capturing Trump's full second-term clemency window.
Wikipedia Context
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Barron TrumpBarron William Trump is the fifth and youngest child of Donald Trump, the 45th and 47th president of the United States, and his only child with his third wife, Melania Trump, which makes him a member of the first family of the United States, the Trump family.
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Political interference with science agencies by the first Trump administration
During his first term as president of the United States (2017–2021), Donald Trump and his administration repeatedly politicized science by pressuring or overriding health and science agencies to change their reporting and recommendations so as to conform to his policies and public comments. This was particularly true with regard to the COVID-19 pandemic, but
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 10% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $1000 if YES resolves true — a 900% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$552K in lifetime turnover and $19K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for epstein contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $9K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 10 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 10%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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