Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This Market will resolve to “US Strikes Iran” if the US strikes Iran before Donald Trump announces a new Fed Chair nominee by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Trump Announce Fed” if Donald Trump announces a new Fed Chair nominee before the US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The US will be considered to strike Iran if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| US strikes Iran or Trump announces Fed nominee first? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market compares the timing of two significant policy events: whether the United States initiates aerial strikes against Iran before Donald Trump announces a replacement for the Federal Reserve Chair. The resolution hinges on which occurs first by end of 2026, with strikes defined narrowly as drone, missile, or air operations on Iranian territory or official Iranian diplomatic facilities. The current order book on Polymarket shows zero probability assigned to US strikes occurring before a Fed nominee announcement, reflecting market participants' assessment that a Fed chair announcement is substantially more likely to precede military action within this timeframe.
Historical precedent suggests Fed chair transitions typically occur on predictable schedules. Jerome Powell's term as Chair began in February 2018, with his reappointment announced in November 2021. Trump's previous Fed chair selection process, culminating in Powell's appointment, took several months from initial consideration to formal announcement. By contrast, US military strikes against Iran have been episodic and reactive—the January 2020 drone strike on Soleimani followed escalating tensions, whilst broader conflict has been avoided despite recurring regional tensions. The implied probability reflects confidence that routine institutional processes will outpace geopolitical escalation.
Traders should monitor Federal Reserve policy communications and Trump's public statements regarding Fed leadership. The Fed chair's term technically extends through mid-2026, creating a natural window for succession planning announcements. Concurrently, developments in US-Iran relations—including sanctions policy, nuclear negotiations, and regional proxy activities—will signal strike probability. Recent reporting on Iran's nuclear programme advancement and regional military posturing remains relevant context for assessing tail risks within the settlement window.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "US strikes Iran or Trump announces Fed nominee first?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$58K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for economy contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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