Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 50+ bps decrease | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| No change | 53% YES | 48% NO |
| 50+ bps increase | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 25 bps decrease | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| 25 bps Increase | 49% YES | 51% NO |
The European Central Bank's monetary policy committee will convene on 22-23 July 2026 to decide on interest rates, with particular focus on the deposit facility rate that serves as the ECB's primary policy tool. The current 1% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects near-certainty that the deposit rate will remain unchanged at this meeting, with traders pricing in only a minimal chance of any basis point adjustment in either direction.
The ECB has maintained a pattern of measured rate adjustments since its hiking cycle began in 2022, typically moving in 25 or 50 basis point increments at scheduled meetings rather than between them. By mid-2026, the central bank will have had roughly two years to assess the effects of its cumulative tightening and will be operating within whatever inflation and growth environment has developed through the first half of the year. Historical precedent suggests that absent a significant economic shock or inflation surprise, the ECB tends to signal rate decisions well in advance through forward guidance, making surprise moves at scheduled meetings relatively uncommon.
Traders monitoring this market should track eurozone inflation data releases in the months preceding July, particularly the June consumer price index figures due before the meeting, alongside any revised economic growth forecasts from the European Commission or ECB staff. The Federal Reserve's policy trajectory will also carry weight, as divergence between US and eurozone rates influences capital flows and currency dynamics. Any unexpected fiscal developments within the eurozone or geopolitical events affecting energy prices could alter the baseline expectation of unchanged rates, though the current pricing suggests the market views such scenarios as distinctly unlikely.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "ECB Interest Rates: July 2026" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$400 in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for economy contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $20 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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