Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the July 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its July 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for July 15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 50+ bps increase | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| No Change | 84% YES | 17% NO |
| 50+ bps decrease | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 25 bps increase | 18% YES | 83% NO |
| 25 bps decrease | 3% YES | 97% NO |
The Bank of Canada will announce its policy decision on 15 July 2026, with markets currently pricing a 1% probability that the overnight rate target will remain unchanged from its level prior to the announcement. The market resolves based on the basis-point change communicated in the official BoC statement, with any movement—whether an increase, decrease, or hold—determining the outcome. Current pricing reflects strong consensus expectations for a rate adjustment rather than a pause.
Historical context suggests the BoC has moved decisively through tightening and easing cycles. Between 2022 and 2023, the central bank raised rates from near-zero to 5%, then began cutting from June 2024 onwards. The 1% probability assigned to no change reflects the market's assessment that by mid-2026, economic conditions will warrant continued policy adjustment. Previous pause decisions have been rare outside of inflection points, and the current pricing suggests traders expect the BoC to remain in an active adjustment phase rather than holding steady.
Traders monitoring this market should track Canadian inflation data, labour market releases, and BoC communications in the months preceding July. The central bank's May and June decisions will signal the trajectory heading into the July announcement. Global monetary policy shifts, particularly from the Federal Reserve, typically influence BoC deliberations given trade and capital flow linkages. Recent economic data and forward guidance from BoC officials will shape expectations on Polymarket's order book as the settlement date approaches.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Bank of Canada Decision in July?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for economy contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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