Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 0 | 55% YES | 46% NO |
| 2 | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| 4 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| >5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1 | 32% YES | 68% NO |
| 3 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 5 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
The market tracks whether at least one earthquake measuring 6.5 magnitude or greater will strike anywhere on Earth during the seven-day window of 11–17 May 2026. The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program serves as the authoritative resolution source, with a settlement deadline extended to 30 June 2026 to account for reporting delays on significant seismic events. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 54% probability of YES, reflecting moderate conviction that such an event will occur within this specific week.
Historical seismic data shows that earthquakes of 6.5 magnitude or above occur globally at a rate of roughly 15–20 per year, or approximately one every 2–3 weeks on average. This baseline suggests the seven-day window carries meaningful probability of capturing at least one such event. However, seismic activity clusters unpredictably; some weeks see multiple significant quakes whilst others pass with none. The implied 54% probability sits between the naive expectation (roughly 13–20% for a random week) and certainty, suggesting traders are pricing in above-average activity or recent seismic patterns that elevate near-term risk.
Traders monitoring this market should track real-time USGS earthquake bulletins and any notable foreshock sequences in active zones—particularly the Pacific Ring of Fire, where roughly 90% of global seismic energy is released. Geophysical forecasting remains limited; no reliable method predicts specific earthquakes days in advance. The order book will likely tighten as the settlement window approaches and actual seismic activity either materialises or does not, with any significant tremor in adjacent regions potentially shifting sentiment on the probability of a 6.5+ event during the final days.
The 1997 Manyi earthquake occurred on November 8 at 10:02 UTC. The epicenter was in Nagqu Prefecture in northern Tibet, China. The focal mechanism indicates a left-lateral strike-slip movement. This earthquake had a surface rupture of 17 km (11 mi) long with up to 7 m (23 ft) of left-lateral slip along the Manyi fault, a westward continuation of the Kunlun f
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$11K in lifetime turnover and $17K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for earthquakes contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $7K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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