Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Leadership Change" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran. This market will resolve to “Ceasefire” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The market hinges on whether Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei loses de facto control of the state before the US and Iran reach a formal, publicly announced ceasefire agreement. Direct military engagement between the two powers remains limited but persistent, centred on proxy forces, drone strikes, and occasional direct exchanges. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the market's assessment that a ceasefire agreement is substantially more likely to materialise before any leadership transition in Tehran—a view shaped by the relative stability of Iran's power structure and the precedent of diplomatic off-ramps following escalation cycles.
Historical comparison suggests leadership changes in Iran occur through internal factional shifts rather than external pressure, typically unfolding over years. The 1997 election of reformist Mohammad Khatami and the 2021 ascension of hardliner Ebrahim Raisi both occurred through constitutional processes. By contrast, US-Iran ceasefires have emerged more rapidly when regional conditions shift: the 2015 JCPOA negotiations concluded within months of political will alignment, though that agreement later collapsed. The current 0% reading implies traders view Khamenei's succession as a multi-year prospect at minimum.
Traders should monitor announcements from ongoing indirect negotiations, particularly through Omani and Iraqi intermediaries, and any statements from the incoming Trump administration regarding Iran policy. The International Institute for Strategic Studies reported in November 2024 that back-channel talks had intensified following regional escalations. Catalysts for leadership change—health crises, major internal power struggles, or succession disputes—remain opaque and difficult to forecast, whereas ceasefire negotiations produce observable diplomatic signals months in advance.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$101K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for diplomacy ceasefire contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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