Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Wingbits token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Wingbits will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $20M | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $100M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $300M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $800M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $50M | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $200M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $500M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Wingbits is preparing to launch a native token, with market participants currently pricing a 100% probability that the fully diluted valuation will exceed an unspecified threshold within 24 hours of going live. The FDV calculation relies on total token supply multiplied by the traded price, measured at 4:00 PM ET on the day following public launch. Only an officially issued token qualifies; stablecoins, memecoins, liquid staking tokens and synthetics are excluded from resolution.
Recent crypto token launches have demonstrated highly variable FDV trajectories in their opening day. Projects with established communities and clear utility propositions—such as Solana's ecosystem tokens—have sustained elevated valuations through initial trading, whilst others have experienced sharp corrections within hours of launch. The current 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either exceptional confidence in Wingbits' market positioning or suggests traders are pricing the threshold as achievable given typical launch dynamics. Comparable launches in 2023–2024 show that tokens with pre-launch momentum and institutional backing frequently exceed modest FDV targets on day one, though the specific threshold here remains undisclosed in available documentation.
Traders should monitor Wingbits' official announcements regarding launch timing, initial token allocation, and exchange listings. The exact FDV threshold will determine whether this market resolves affirmatively; a lower threshold makes resolution more probable, whilst higher thresholds introduce material downside risk to the current pricing. Market participants should verify the launch date and initial trading venue before settlement, as execution delays or limited initial liquidity could affect price discovery on the critical measurement window.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Wingbits FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$14K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2028. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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